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Super Tuesday\u00a0and\u00a0President Joe Biden\u2019s coming State of the Union\u00a0are\u00a0serving as the cues\u00a0this week\u00a0for campaigns and the media to declare the official start of the general election.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s\u00a0the matchup voters have dreaded the most, and yet, they are going to get it. The negativity both in paid and unpaid media is going to be sky-high. This isn\u2019t going to be an election for the faint of heart: It\u2019s going to be nasty, it\u2019s going to be personal,\u00a0and\u00a0violence is more probable than most would want to admit. In short, it\u2019s going to be the most anticipated contentious election since at least 1968 \u2014\u00a0and\u00a0I use \u201canticipated\u201d because both the 2000 and the 2016 elections became contentious only in the aftermath.<\/p>\n
By the time the two campaigns are done pummeling each other, I suspect Trump supporters are going to assume Biden is at death\u2019s door, while Biden supporters are going to assume the Constitution will be suspended the day\u00a0of a second\u00a0Trump inauguration.<\/p>\n
The real question, of course, is\u00a0which\u00a0negative\u00a0attacks will actually stick\u00a0in the minds of\u00a0voters who aren\u2019t hard partisans and aren\u2019t predisposed to assume the worst about\u00a0both candidates.\u00a0What we do know is that these swing voters don\u2019t like former President Donald Trump\u2019s personality or character\u00a0and\u00a0they are concerned about Biden\u2019s physical abilities (which may also really mean they\u00a0have\u00a0a confidence issue in\u00a0Vice President Kamala Harris).<\/p>\n
The next six weeks should tell us a lot about how much a paid anti-Trump media campaign can move Biden\u2019s numbers. Given the financial advantage Biden enjoys over Trump, it would be malpractice if the Biden campaign didn\u2019t try to press\u00a0that advantage immediately.\u00a0Right now, this campaign has a \u201creferendum on Biden\u201d vibe to it, a fairly natural occurrence at this point in an incumbent\u2019s re-election effort. The challenger \u2014 in this case Trump \u2014 is the one constantly on the trail and in the news,\u00a0and his victories are giving him a bit of a \u201cwinner\u2019s\u201d halo effect that many a presumptive nominee has enjoyed.<\/p>\n
Just ask Presidents Dukakis, Romney and Kerry how long that lasts,\u00a0though. All had moments when they appeared to have successfully made the campaign about the other guy (and their\u00a0party). That is, until the\u00a0incumbent\u2019s campaign\u00a0had\u00a0its\u00a0say and started to spend\u00a0its\u00a0money.<\/p>\n\nWe are about to find out\u00a0how good the Biden paid media machine\u00a0is. One thing I\u2019m curious to see is how it goes after Trump on character and\u00a0his\u00a0legal issues. Is a persuasion message necessary on the legal front, or is this one of those issues about which you either think Trump brought all of this on himself or you think it\u2019s simply politics?\u00a0Are\u00a0there attacks\u00a0that will resonate more with voters about\u00a0Trump\u2019s actions in office? Does the Biden campaign need to do\u00a0its\u00a0own version of a Trump history lesson \u2014 of what he did and didn\u2019t get done in office?<\/p>\n
As I\u2019ve written before, it\u2019s pretty clear most Americans have memory-holed a lot of things\u00a0before and during Covid, not just Trump\u2019s erratic behavior as president. The pandemic\u2019s impact on our collective long-term memory has been fascinating to sort through in our own lives. There\u00a0could be\u00a0an opportunity for voters to re-remember what they didn\u2019t like about\u00a0Trump\u2019s\u00a0presidency pre-Covid\u00a0but have blocked out in the ensuing years.<\/p>\n
While there may be a lot of areas where Biden\u2019s campaign could focus\u00a0its\u00a0negative attacks, not every area will work. Some issues fire up\u00a0the Democratic\u00a0base more than\u00a0the\u00a0skeptical moderates.<\/p>\n
In general, Jan. 6 seems to be something that Trump has yet to fully wriggle out of when voters are reminded of his role. He has gotten his\u00a0base\u00a0to re-remember a lot of things about his life, but so far, he hasn\u2019t been able to successfully erase Jan. 6 from the collective voter memory. So I expect that day to be used symbolically throughout the Biden re-election campaign as a regular touchstone.<\/p>\n
One thing the Biden campaign shouldn\u2019t rely on is an assist from\u00a0criminal\u00a0trials as a way to remind folks of Trump\u2019s bad behavior as president. As I stated before, the only trial that might penetrate the less-polarized public is the Jan. 6 trial\u00a0brought\u00a0by special prosecutor Jack Smith \u2014 but the likelihood of that trial\u2019s starting before November is now in doubt.<\/p>\n\nAs for the Trump campaign, in theory,\u00a0it has\u00a0the easier job playing\u00a0full-time challenger. In the primaries, Trump didn\u2019t mind running as \u201cPresident Trump,\u201d because it allowed him to bully the party to get behind him. He called in every favor (even ones that didn\u2019t belong to him) to orchestrate the Super Tuesday coronation. That\u2019s what incumbents can do inside their own parties. But now he\u2019s a full-time challenger, and he\u2019s better\u00a0off\u00a0acting like a \u201cformer\u201d than a \u201csitting\u201d if his goal is to keep this campaign a referendum.<\/p>\n
One of the hallmarks of Trump\u2019s campaigns, both in the past and now, is his ability to project his own weaknesses on his opponent. One of the more effective hits on Trump is to portray him as a chaos agent, unable or unwilling to prevent, say, a Jan. 6 protest from turning into a full-on insurrection. Of course, Trump knows this \u2014 which is why he regularly portrays the border or things happening overseas as \u201cchaotic\u201d or \u201cout of control\u201d\u00a0on Biden\u2019s watch.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m\u00a0curious to see how Biden\u2019s team navigates this attempt at inoculation. One of the great challenges it has is convincing the middle of the electorate to vote for\u00a0Biden\u00a0a second time,\u00a0arguing that\u00a0this time, the chaos\u00a0Biden pledged to put behind the nation in 2020\u00a0will truly end. Will these voters believe that? Do they give Biden credit for trying to turn the temperature down and instead hold Trump accountable for intentionally disrupting things for disruption\u2019s sake?<\/p>\n
Of course, everything\u00a0else\u00a0could be moot if abortion access is the defining issue for the fall. Of all the Trump\u2019s vulnerabilities, abortion is the one\u00a0policy\u00a0issue he has yet to find his sea legs on, and it could be the vulnerability that matters most.<\/p>\n
So while I have a good idea of what the negative campaign between\u00a0Biden and Trump\u00a0is going to look like, I admit I\u2019m struggling to envision how either is going to be able to credibly convince the exhausted middle that his victory will finally press pause on the chaos.<\/p>\n
Despite the power of negative partisanship, I still believe optimism is something voters crave \u2014 but it has to be believable optimism. Biden is more comfortable pivoting to an optimistic vision than Trump, whose manufacturer setting is pessimism. It\u2019s what has given him his political power. And while Trump can turn on a used-car salesman type of charm every once in a while, is it credible enough to convince a skeptical public that a second term of Trump would be somehow less chaotic and less disruptive than the first term?\u00a0Especially when more disruption is exactly what\u00a0Trump\u2019s base wants? This is what makes Trump\u2019s challenge to win over the final slice of persuadable voters so much harder than Biden\u2019s.<\/p>\n
One gets the sense Biden would prefer calm\u00a0\u2014 and\u00a0Trump would prefer chaos. Voters usually sniff this out, but\u00a0the question is\u00a0what\u00a0these voters\u00a0really want.\u00a0What do voters want America to look like on\u00a0Jan.\u00a021, and what does each once and future president plan to do to keep the country together if he actually wins? What does the day after tomorrow look like? It\u2019s now up to the campaigns to tell us.<\/p>\n
How media can shape perceptions\u00a0<\/h2>\n
As many of you know, I think the phrase \u201cmedia bias\u201d is fairly outdated because all humans are born with original bias, meaning all media has a bias. The question is whether that bias is ideological or temperamental. I try to look at politics the way anthropologists study a civilization they have encountered, not as an advocate. Plenty of media these days is authored more by advocates than anthropologists, but then again, if the business is about clicks, then we know what\u2019s winning out.<\/p>\n
But I\u2019d be remiss if I didn\u2019t point out an obvious\u00a0example of how\u00a0media can shape perceptions: the Michigan protest vote against Joe Biden.<\/p>\n
There were two competing headlines\u00a0out of Michigan\u00a0that were both factually accurate:<\/p>\n
\n- “Uncommitted” received just over 13%, with Biden eclipsing more than 80% of the vote.<\/li>\n
- Over 100,000 Michigan\u00a0Democratic primary voters\u00a0voted uncommitted to protest Biden\u2019s refusal, so far, to call for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Amplifying\u00a0the total number of votes\u00a0was a clear decision to shield readers and\u00a0viewers\u00a0from the fact\u00a0that a huge majority voted the other way. In isolation, 100,000 votes sounds like a lot \u2026 but 100,000 votes out of nearly a million is different from 100,000 votes out of 300,000.<\/p>\n
The bottom line: In a race that might be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes in Michigan, the number could be significant. But if the question is whether Gaza is a political problem right now outside Michigan, the results indicate that it isn\u2019t. It\u2019s not something to ignore,\u00a0and\u00a0it\u2019s certainly a\u00a0political\u00a0concern\u00a0for Biden\u00a0\u2014 and I also believe that if\u00a0there is still\u00a0a hot war\u00a0in Gaza\u00a0come the fall, this issue will metastasize outside of one congressional district in one state.<\/p>\n
For now, though, the anthropologist in me believes the more accurate portrayal of what happened in Michigan was to show the percentages, not the raw vote. It\u2019s a fairer representation of what happened.<\/p>\n
Hobbyhorse alert: Who owns sports?<\/h2>\n
The reason I think this is a relevant question\u00a0is\u00a0that college and professional sports\u00a0are\u00a0an important public good to create and maintain vibrant local communities. Sports franchises and college sports programs would have no value without the fans, and yet, they have zero say in what happens to the future of these entities \u2014 whether it\u2019s the local NBA\/NHL owner playing one bucket of taxpayer money (say, Washington, D.C.) against another bucket of taxpayer money (Virginia) or the commissioners of the Big 10 and the SEC trying to rig the college football playoff in their favor.<\/p>\n
If the Big 10 and the SEC have their way, they\u00a0would create a system that would overly reward their members with playoff spots, which in turn would rig the recruiting process away from schools outside those two conferences. They are trying to starve out the ACC, the Big 12 and everyone else.<\/p>\n
What ticks me off is that these entities think they have a right to call these shots \u2014 that somehow they did something to create the value\u00a0of the system\u00a0they are\u00a0trying\u00a0to rig.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not naive \u2014 money talks\u00a0and\u00a0everyone else sulks.\u00a0But I do think elected officials on every level ought to stop enabling folks who have used taxpayer money to build their own wealth \u2014 especially among pro sports owners, but also among these major college programs and conferences.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, there\u2019s a way for everyone to create both more wealth and opportunity and also benefit the maximum number of people in their communities. Most pro sports owners think they own their teams. I disagree; they simply had the cash to pay the initiation fee to join one of the most exclusive country clubs on the planet. But the value of a team depends on whether the community and the owner see eye to eye.<\/p>\n
I\u00a0don\u2019t see\u00a0the owner of a sports franchise\u00a0as\u00a0the equivalent of an owner of a business that makes something\u00a0like\u00a0cars. The specific car (or pick your widget) was a proprietary invention of said company.\u00a0An\u00a0NBA team\u2019s value comes from whether the league as a whole is healthy and popular and whether the community cares about the team or the league.<\/p>\n
I do hope more communities learn to treat public funding to lure sports franchises a lot differently from how they view using public funding to lure factories. And FWIW, I think the values of all homes and businesses in Northern Virginia will suffer if downtown Washington is gutted\u00a0by the departure of its current arena tenants.<\/p>\n
Northern Virginia won\u2019t benefit in the long term\u00a0next to\u00a0a city\u2019s downtown that isn\u2019t vibrant and thriving. Don\u2019t believe me? Ask the folks who live in the suburbs of St. Louis what happens when a downtown gets gutted. When a downtown is emptied out, everyone in the larger metro area suffers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n[ad_2]\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
[ad_1] Super Tuesday\u00a0and\u00a0President Joe Biden\u2019s coming State of the Union\u00a0are\u00a0serving as the cues\u00a0this week\u00a0for campaigns and the media to declare the official start of the general election. It\u2019s\u00a0the matchup voters have dreaded the most, and yet, they are going to get it. The negativity both in paid and unpaid media is going to be sky-high. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30315,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30313"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30313\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/farratanews.online\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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